BUSH IS TOAST, UNLESS...
The only thing that can stop W going down now is another Republican theft of the election.
As we have noted in recent posts, the conservative press has been pushing polls that overestimate W's support ever since this election cycle began. That is not an accident: the conservative press desperately wants W and his cronies to keep their stranglehold on power, so that unrestrained corporate pillaging and unlimited repression of individual rights can continue. That is how the mega-corporations that own the conservative media make their profits.
Remember, in the run-up to the 2000 election, the conservative media polls had W winning handily. They were all wrong: W lost the popular vote, and would have lost the White House if his brother and his cronies hadn't managed to steal enough Democratic votes in FL to make it look like Gore didn't actually win the state. (Which he did, as was confirmed by the national consortium that studied the 2000.)
As we come down to the wire, the best that these overestimated polls can do for W is put him in a dead heat with John Kerry. That means that W's actual support is probably in the low-40% range. But even if you take the overestimated results as true, W's 47 or 48% is not enough for an incumbent to win.
Here's why:
1. Undecided voters ALWAYS break mostly for the challenger. This has been true over time, even during wartime elections. (Of course, contrary to conservative, self-interested hype, this is NOT a wartime election; but that's another story.) The Republicans imagine that somehow W will escape this curse, but there is no objective reason at all on which to base that dream. Kerry will get at least 55% of the undecided vote, dragging W's 47 or 48% down to 45 or 46%.
2. At least 13 million new voters will go to the polls this coming Tuesday. Some of them were whipped up by the Republicans' fanatical fear-mongering, race-baiting, gay-bashing, and Bible-thumping. But the majority of them signed up because they are enraged at the Republicans' theft of the last election and at the horrendous disasters W has loosed on our once proud nation. This majority will be voting for Kerry, further cutting into W's 45 or 46%.
3. Even the best polling organizations, like Zogby, just cannot reach much of the population that will make the big difference in this election. They do not have enough Spanish-speaking pollsters, they do not have cell-phone numbers, they do not have lists of new voters, and they cannot reach the young voters on college campuses all over the country, who will certainly be turning out in huge numbers for Kerry. (Being the the higher education community, I can attest to the fact that college-age voters are overwhelmingly tilting toward Kerry, and that somewhere in the neighborhood of 93% of them will turn out to vote in this election--a great turn-around from the apathy that reigned on college campuses during the 1990s. This will cut into W's mid-40% even more.
4. Polls of the battleground states have also been juiced-up for W: since the conservative press routinely assumes in every state that more Republicans will vote than Democrats (a fact that MAY have been true at some time in the past, but will certainly NOT be true this year), the state polls by these organizations are just as biased toward W as the national polls are--if not more so, since the samplings are smaller. The story is far different if one looks at polls done by in-state polling organizations. Even without factoring in the massive Democratic turnout that will surge in all states, Kerry will almost certainly take 6 of the 10 battleground states. W loses again.
5. W's gains in support have been almost entirely in RED states--where he already was the favorite. He needed to get support in the BLUE states, and he hasn't done it. (All the traveling to PA, WI, MI, NM this week is just KarlRovian bluster intended to give the impression that W has a chance in those states, in the hope that morons who go into the ballot box wanting to vote for the "winner" will choose W. Also, Republican claims that 18% of the African-American vote will go to W are just wild-eyed lunacy.)
So the picture is clear. There is no way the W can win the election this Tuesday.
At least not fair and square.
Buy, of course, as we have often pointed out here at the Hammer, the Bushites don't give a hoot for fairness and squareness. They want power, and they will get it in any way they can. So we expect that the Bushite junta will brazenly attack this election that they cannot possibly win in a way that will make it possible for them to retain power. Even at this late date, even with the grave risk that their blatant attempt to steal the election will backfire, they will do it because they have nothing to lose.
What will it be? Well, we already know that the RNC has planned the most massive voter-supression drive in Republican history for this Tuesday. The Republican henchmen will be out in force trying to intimidate minorities, the elderly, women, anyone who they think they can scare away from the polls. And they don't actually have to confront millions of people to win with this tactic; all they have to do is gum up the works enough so that millions of people cannot vote. They will stop at nothing to create havoc at the polls.
And if this doesn't work, well, Republicans have made the vast majority of electronic voting machines that will be used on Tuesday, and, as experts have testified, these machines are the most poorly safeguarded devices ever created to tally votes, without any system for recounting. So it is highly likely that unscrupulous Republican voting-machine vendors will change the vote-tallies in W's favor without anyone knowing. The only way the problem could be detected is if the exit polls differ wildly from the machine counts in some sort of consistent way. But the exit polls will be done by a consortium of the major networks and news organizations--yes, that's right, by the conservative media, who have a vested interest in W's reselection.
But even if the consortium is honest enough to report such discrepancies, the Republicans don't have to actually get away with this crime in order for them to succeed in their aims. Wild discrepancies also work to their advantage, because then they can claim voting fraud, and tie up the election outcome in court as they did in 2000, hoping to get the Supreme Court to side with them again.
And if these rotten tactics are not enough, don't forget the KarlRovian strategy to run on the war! Is it an accident that US forces have been gearing up for an assault on Fallujah and Ramadi? A major battle in Iraq on Monday or Tuesday would be an excellent pretext for W and Co. to disrupt elections. Or how about a sudden increase in the terror alert on Monday or Tuesday? We already know that Cheney is presiding over at least three state "terror drills" on election day. What is that about? What insanity (apart from Republican-controlled state governments that will give Cheney whatever he asks for) would lead a state to have such a "drill" on the one day in four years when all state government should be attending to the people's business of voting?
In short, there is no limit to the number of nefarious ways in which the Bushites could try to disrupt, steal, stop, or invalidate Tuesday's elections. Since we have shown time and time again that they are amoral, conscienceless, brazen brutes, we have no doubt that they will try to pull off something outrageous before or on election day. We will be astounded if we are wrong.
We are hoping that the will of the people, which is now clearly to remove the Bushites from power, can be put into operation at the polls this Tuesday. But we are seriously worried that the Bushites will pull off yet another crime against democracy.
The only thing that could stop them is a clear, decided win for Kerry--a win that can't be spun.
And the only way we get that is if every last one of us decent people, who know how evil the Bushite junta is, get out to the polls and record our intention to take W down.
So please, for the sake of our poor nation, our democracy, our children, and their children, get out on Tuesday and vote for Kerry.
Only then might we be able to put this sad era of American history behind us and go forward to overturn the conservatism that is sucking America dry and turning her into a heartless, soulless, greedy, selfish zombie.
P.S.
The following message is bouncing around the internet. It is a good summary of the sort of person who goes in for conservative "values."
Joe gets up at 6 a.m. and fills his coffeepot with water to prepare his morning coffee. The water is clean and good because some tree-hugging liberal fought for minimum water-quality standards.
With his first swallow of coffee, he takes his daily medication. His medications are safe to take because some stupid commie liberal fought to insure their safety and that they work as advertised.
All but $10 of Joe's medications are paid for by his employer's medical plan because some liberal union workers fought their employers for paid medical insurance - now Joe gets it too. He prepares his morning breakfast, bacon and eggs. Joe's bacon is
safe to eat because some girly-man liberal fought for laws to regulate the meat packing industry.
In the morning shower, Joe reaches for his shampoo. His bottle is properly labeled with each ingredient and its amount in the total contents because some crybaby liberal fought for his right to know what he was putting on his body and how much it contained.
Joe dresses, walks outside and takes a deep breath. The air he breathes is clean because some environmentalist wacko liberal fought for laws to stop industries from polluting our air.
He walks to the subway station for his government-subsidized ride to work. It saves him considerable money in parking and transportation fees because some fancy-pants liberal fought for affordable public transportation, which gives everyone the opportunity to be a contributor.
Joe begins his work day. He has a good job with excellent pay, medical benefits, retirement, paid holidays and vacation because some lazy liberal union members fought and died for these working standards. Joe's employer pays these standards because Joe's employer doesn't want his employees to call the union.
If Joe is hurt on the job or becomes unemployed, he'll get a worker compensation or unemployment check because some stupid liberal didn't think he should lose his home because of his temporary misfortune.
Its noontime and Joe needs to make a bank deposit so he can pay some bills. Joe's deposit is federally insured by the FSLIC because some godless liberal wanted to protect Joe's money from unscrupulous bankers who ruined the banking system before the Great Depression.
Joe has to pay his Fannie Mae-underwritten mortgage and his below-market federal student loan because some elitist liberal decided that Joe and the government would be better off if he was educated and earned more money over his lifetime.
After work this evening, Joe plans to visit his father at his farm home in the country. He gets in his car for the drive. His car is among the safest in the world because some America-hating liberal fought for car safety standards.
He arrives at his boyhood home. His was the third generation to live in the house financed by Farmers' Home Administration because bankers didn't want to make rural loans. The house didn't have electricity until some big-government liberal stuck his nose where it didn't belong and demanded rural electrification.
Joe is happy to see his father, who is now retired and lives on Social Security and a union pension because some wine-drinking, cheese-eating liberal made sure he could take care of himself so Joe wouldn't have to.
Joe gets back in his car for the ride home, and turns on a radio talk show. The radio host keeps saying that liberals are bad and conservatives are good. He doesn't mention that the beloved Republicans have fought against every protection and benefit Joe enjoys throughout his day.
Joe agrees: "We don't need those big-government liberals ruining our lives! After all, I'm a self-made man who believes everyone should take care of themselves, just like I have."
The only thing that can stop W going down now is another Republican theft of the election.
As we have noted in recent posts, the conservative press has been pushing polls that overestimate W's support ever since this election cycle began. That is not an accident: the conservative press desperately wants W and his cronies to keep their stranglehold on power, so that unrestrained corporate pillaging and unlimited repression of individual rights can continue. That is how the mega-corporations that own the conservative media make their profits.
Remember, in the run-up to the 2000 election, the conservative media polls had W winning handily. They were all wrong: W lost the popular vote, and would have lost the White House if his brother and his cronies hadn't managed to steal enough Democratic votes in FL to make it look like Gore didn't actually win the state. (Which he did, as was confirmed by the national consortium that studied the 2000.)
As we come down to the wire, the best that these overestimated polls can do for W is put him in a dead heat with John Kerry. That means that W's actual support is probably in the low-40% range. But even if you take the overestimated results as true, W's 47 or 48% is not enough for an incumbent to win.
Here's why:
1. Undecided voters ALWAYS break mostly for the challenger. This has been true over time, even during wartime elections. (Of course, contrary to conservative, self-interested hype, this is NOT a wartime election; but that's another story.) The Republicans imagine that somehow W will escape this curse, but there is no objective reason at all on which to base that dream. Kerry will get at least 55% of the undecided vote, dragging W's 47 or 48% down to 45 or 46%.
2. At least 13 million new voters will go to the polls this coming Tuesday. Some of them were whipped up by the Republicans' fanatical fear-mongering, race-baiting, gay-bashing, and Bible-thumping. But the majority of them signed up because they are enraged at the Republicans' theft of the last election and at the horrendous disasters W has loosed on our once proud nation. This majority will be voting for Kerry, further cutting into W's 45 or 46%.
3. Even the best polling organizations, like Zogby, just cannot reach much of the population that will make the big difference in this election. They do not have enough Spanish-speaking pollsters, they do not have cell-phone numbers, they do not have lists of new voters, and they cannot reach the young voters on college campuses all over the country, who will certainly be turning out in huge numbers for Kerry. (Being the the higher education community, I can attest to the fact that college-age voters are overwhelmingly tilting toward Kerry, and that somewhere in the neighborhood of 93% of them will turn out to vote in this election--a great turn-around from the apathy that reigned on college campuses during the 1990s. This will cut into W's mid-40% even more.
4. Polls of the battleground states have also been juiced-up for W: since the conservative press routinely assumes in every state that more Republicans will vote than Democrats (a fact that MAY have been true at some time in the past, but will certainly NOT be true this year), the state polls by these organizations are just as biased toward W as the national polls are--if not more so, since the samplings are smaller. The story is far different if one looks at polls done by in-state polling organizations. Even without factoring in the massive Democratic turnout that will surge in all states, Kerry will almost certainly take 6 of the 10 battleground states. W loses again.
5. W's gains in support have been almost entirely in RED states--where he already was the favorite. He needed to get support in the BLUE states, and he hasn't done it. (All the traveling to PA, WI, MI, NM this week is just KarlRovian bluster intended to give the impression that W has a chance in those states, in the hope that morons who go into the ballot box wanting to vote for the "winner" will choose W. Also, Republican claims that 18% of the African-American vote will go to W are just wild-eyed lunacy.)
So the picture is clear. There is no way the W can win the election this Tuesday.
At least not fair and square.
Buy, of course, as we have often pointed out here at the Hammer, the Bushites don't give a hoot for fairness and squareness. They want power, and they will get it in any way they can. So we expect that the Bushite junta will brazenly attack this election that they cannot possibly win in a way that will make it possible for them to retain power. Even at this late date, even with the grave risk that their blatant attempt to steal the election will backfire, they will do it because they have nothing to lose.
What will it be? Well, we already know that the RNC has planned the most massive voter-supression drive in Republican history for this Tuesday. The Republican henchmen will be out in force trying to intimidate minorities, the elderly, women, anyone who they think they can scare away from the polls. And they don't actually have to confront millions of people to win with this tactic; all they have to do is gum up the works enough so that millions of people cannot vote. They will stop at nothing to create havoc at the polls.
And if this doesn't work, well, Republicans have made the vast majority of electronic voting machines that will be used on Tuesday, and, as experts have testified, these machines are the most poorly safeguarded devices ever created to tally votes, without any system for recounting. So it is highly likely that unscrupulous Republican voting-machine vendors will change the vote-tallies in W's favor without anyone knowing. The only way the problem could be detected is if the exit polls differ wildly from the machine counts in some sort of consistent way. But the exit polls will be done by a consortium of the major networks and news organizations--yes, that's right, by the conservative media, who have a vested interest in W's reselection.
But even if the consortium is honest enough to report such discrepancies, the Republicans don't have to actually get away with this crime in order for them to succeed in their aims. Wild discrepancies also work to their advantage, because then they can claim voting fraud, and tie up the election outcome in court as they did in 2000, hoping to get the Supreme Court to side with them again.
And if these rotten tactics are not enough, don't forget the KarlRovian strategy to run on the war! Is it an accident that US forces have been gearing up for an assault on Fallujah and Ramadi? A major battle in Iraq on Monday or Tuesday would be an excellent pretext for W and Co. to disrupt elections. Or how about a sudden increase in the terror alert on Monday or Tuesday? We already know that Cheney is presiding over at least three state "terror drills" on election day. What is that about? What insanity (apart from Republican-controlled state governments that will give Cheney whatever he asks for) would lead a state to have such a "drill" on the one day in four years when all state government should be attending to the people's business of voting?
In short, there is no limit to the number of nefarious ways in which the Bushites could try to disrupt, steal, stop, or invalidate Tuesday's elections. Since we have shown time and time again that they are amoral, conscienceless, brazen brutes, we have no doubt that they will try to pull off something outrageous before or on election day. We will be astounded if we are wrong.
We are hoping that the will of the people, which is now clearly to remove the Bushites from power, can be put into operation at the polls this Tuesday. But we are seriously worried that the Bushites will pull off yet another crime against democracy.
The only thing that could stop them is a clear, decided win for Kerry--a win that can't be spun.
And the only way we get that is if every last one of us decent people, who know how evil the Bushite junta is, get out to the polls and record our intention to take W down.
So please, for the sake of our poor nation, our democracy, our children, and their children, get out on Tuesday and vote for Kerry.
Only then might we be able to put this sad era of American history behind us and go forward to overturn the conservatism that is sucking America dry and turning her into a heartless, soulless, greedy, selfish zombie.
P.S.
The following message is bouncing around the internet. It is a good summary of the sort of person who goes in for conservative "values."
Joe gets up at 6 a.m. and fills his coffeepot with water to prepare his morning coffee. The water is clean and good because some tree-hugging liberal fought for minimum water-quality standards.
With his first swallow of coffee, he takes his daily medication. His medications are safe to take because some stupid commie liberal fought to insure their safety and that they work as advertised.
All but $10 of Joe's medications are paid for by his employer's medical plan because some liberal union workers fought their employers for paid medical insurance - now Joe gets it too. He prepares his morning breakfast, bacon and eggs. Joe's bacon is
safe to eat because some girly-man liberal fought for laws to regulate the meat packing industry.
In the morning shower, Joe reaches for his shampoo. His bottle is properly labeled with each ingredient and its amount in the total contents because some crybaby liberal fought for his right to know what he was putting on his body and how much it contained.
Joe dresses, walks outside and takes a deep breath. The air he breathes is clean because some environmentalist wacko liberal fought for laws to stop industries from polluting our air.
He walks to the subway station for his government-subsidized ride to work. It saves him considerable money in parking and transportation fees because some fancy-pants liberal fought for affordable public transportation, which gives everyone the opportunity to be a contributor.
Joe begins his work day. He has a good job with excellent pay, medical benefits, retirement, paid holidays and vacation because some lazy liberal union members fought and died for these working standards. Joe's employer pays these standards because Joe's employer doesn't want his employees to call the union.
If Joe is hurt on the job or becomes unemployed, he'll get a worker compensation or unemployment check because some stupid liberal didn't think he should lose his home because of his temporary misfortune.
Its noontime and Joe needs to make a bank deposit so he can pay some bills. Joe's deposit is federally insured by the FSLIC because some godless liberal wanted to protect Joe's money from unscrupulous bankers who ruined the banking system before the Great Depression.
Joe has to pay his Fannie Mae-underwritten mortgage and his below-market federal student loan because some elitist liberal decided that Joe and the government would be better off if he was educated and earned more money over his lifetime.
After work this evening, Joe plans to visit his father at his farm home in the country. He gets in his car for the drive. His car is among the safest in the world because some America-hating liberal fought for car safety standards.
He arrives at his boyhood home. His was the third generation to live in the house financed by Farmers' Home Administration because bankers didn't want to make rural loans. The house didn't have electricity until some big-government liberal stuck his nose where it didn't belong and demanded rural electrification.
Joe is happy to see his father, who is now retired and lives on Social Security and a union pension because some wine-drinking, cheese-eating liberal made sure he could take care of himself so Joe wouldn't have to.
Joe gets back in his car for the ride home, and turns on a radio talk show. The radio host keeps saying that liberals are bad and conservatives are good. He doesn't mention that the beloved Republicans have fought against every protection and benefit Joe enjoys throughout his day.
Joe agrees: "We don't need those big-government liberals ruining our lives! After all, I'm a self-made man who believes everyone should take care of themselves, just like I have."
